UICC World Cancer Congress 2006

Objective:Lung cancer is the most common cancer in males worldwide and one of the most common cancers in females. New EU member states are among European countries of the high risk of lung cancer for men. Although there are several factors influencing the risk of developing lung cancer, tobacco smoking is well established as the main risk factor. Thus, changes in lung cancer mortality may reflect changes in smoking habits in a given population.

Methods:Regression model was used to predict future mortality changes. To select a base time period for prediction the joinpoint regression was applied (to select the most recent time periods of unchanged estimated annual percentage changes). The 1959-2002 data on lung cancer deaths in new EU members and population, and forecast of populations (up to 2015) were used as an input to the models. The prediction model assumes that the time variable exemplifies cumulative changes of various carcinogens, which a population was exposed to over time.

Results:Predicted trends are different for men and women. Assuming that current smoking patterns will continue in future, lung cancer mortality in males in 2012 will remain at the level observed currently. The only exception may be the Czech Republic, where decline in mortality can be observed. In women, in majority of the new member states, there will be an increase of mortality observed, with the most distinct increase predicted in Hungary. Only in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania a plateau in mortality rates may be expected.