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UICC World Cancer Congress 2006

Bridging the Gap: Transforming Knowledge into Action

July 8-12, 2006, Washington, DC, USA

Sunday, 9 July 2006 - 12:00 PM
10-21

Estimation of Cancer Prevalence -- Methods and Uses for Comprehensive Cancer Control Planning

Daniel M. Rosenblum, PhD1, Judith B. Klotz, DrPH2, Xiaoling Niu, MS3, Jung Y. Kim1, and Stanley H. Weiss, MD4. (1) Preventive Medicine and Community Health, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey - New Jersey Medical School, ADMC Building 16, Rm. 1614, 30 Bergen St., Newark, NJ 07107-3000, (2) University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey - School of Public Health, ADMC Building 16, Rm. 1614, 30 Bergen St., Newark, NJ 07107-3000, (3) Cancer Epidemiology Services, New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services, 3635 Quakerbridge Rd., Trenton, NJ 08625, (4) Dept. of Preventive Medicine and Community Health, Dept. of Quantitative Methods, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey - New Jersey Medical School & School of Public Health, ADMC Building 16, Rm. 1614, 30 Bergen St., Newark, NJ 07107-3000

Objective: In implementing the New Jersey Comprehensive Cancer Control Plan (NJ-CCCP), cancer capacity and needs assessments were undertaken in the state's 21 counties. Total prevalence (# persons ever diagnosed) is useful for assessing the burden of cancer because of lifelong medical and psychosocial effects on survivors and their families. A method for easily estimating total prevalence of certain cancers in localized regions using available data was developed.

Methods: For all cancers combined, each of the seven priority cancers of the NJ-CCCP, and bladder cancer, national crude annual incidence rates and prevalence estimates published by SEER were used to calculate the ratio of prevalence count to incidence count separately for each gender. Using simplifying assumptions about county demographic and epidemiologic similarities to the nation, these ratios were then multiplied by the corresponding average annual county incidence counts from the state cancer registry to obtain rough estimates of total prevalence of these cancers in each county.

Results: Prevalence-to-incidence ratios ranged from 1.4 (lung cancer in males) to 17.0 (cervical cancer). County cancer control planners and cancer coalitions have found these prevalence estimates to be useful in assessing relative burdens of disease and setting local priorities.

Subsequently, these estimates were compared with estimates from the newly available SEER*Stat limited-duration prevalence calculations. As expected, our estimates were larger than SEER*Stat estimates for long-survival cancers, but both estimates were in reasonably close agreement for cancers with short survival times. The simplicity of our method broadens the range of personnel who would be able to readily estimate local prevalence.



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