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The 13th World Conference on Tobacco OR Health

Building capacity for a tobacco-free world

July 12-15, 2006, Washington, DC, USA



Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 12:00 PM
13-86

Incidence of Smoking in Mexican Youth: a Cohort Study

Luisa Maria Sanchez-Zamorano, PhD, Program's Evaluetion and Cuantitative Methodw, National Institute of Public Health, Av. Universidad 655, Col. Sta. Maria Ahuacatitlan, Cuernavaca, Mor, 62508, Mexico, Ramon Durazo-Arvizu, PhD, Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, Loyola University Chicago, 2160 South First Avenue, Maywood, Chicago, IL 60153, Mauricio Hernandez-Avila, PhD, General Direction, National Institute of Public Health, Av. Universidad 655, Col. Sta. Maria Ahuacatitlán, Cuernavaca, 62508, Mexico, and Eduardo Cesar Lazcano-Ponce, PhD, Direction of Center of Research of Population Health, National Institute of Public Health, Av. Universidad 655, Col. Sta. Maria Ahuacatitlan, Cuernavaca, 62508, Mexico.

Objective: The objective of this research is to determine the predictive factors for tobacco use among students in Mexico.

Methods: A cohort study was carried out of public school students from the State of Morelos in Mexico. The baseline measurement was collected in the 1998-1999 school year and the second measurement was during the 2000-2001 school year. The study population was 2,914 students who did not use tobacco at the time of the baseline measurement. The mean baseline age's was 13.5 years (DE 2.17); sex distribution was 34.2% male and 65.8% female; 66.6% studied junior high school, 22.5% were enrolled at senior high school, and 10.9% were in college.

Results: Among the 2,914 students, the accumulated global incidence of active tobacco use was of 11.15% (IC95% 10.1 – 12.3). By gender, incidence was 8.65% (IC95% 7.4 – 9.9) among females and 15.90% (IC95% 13.7 – 18.3) among males. Prior (baseline) frequency of alcohol consumption most strongly predicted smoking in secondary schools, especially in the group of students with the antecedent of frequent alcohol consumption (OR= 7.80; IC95% 3.76-16.18). The intra-class correlation coefficient of the schools was 4.78% (IC95% 1.61-13.34). Prior severe depression did predict smoking onset in the adolescents (OR= 1.53; IC95% 1.11-2.10). The accumulated incidence of active tobacco use observed in this study is a valuable indicator of the growing smoking problem among young people. The factor found to predict a strong effect was prior frequency of alcohol consumption, and this was found to differ according to level of schooling



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