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The 13th World Conference on Tobacco OR Health

Building capacity for a tobacco-free world

July 12-15, 2006, Washington, DC, USA

Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 12:00 PM

Life Tables, Conditional Probability and Lifetime Risks for Three Pathologies Attributable to Tobacco Smoking in Mexico, 2002

Victor J. Tovar-Guzman and Francisco J. López-Antuñano, MD, MPH. Tobacco research., National Institute of Public Health, Av. Universidad 655, Santa María Ahuacatitlán, Cuernavaca, 62508, Mexico


Simultaneous description of mortality patterns of a set of diseases (Lung Cancer (LC), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD), in a specific population is made by means of life tables, organizing and analyzing the age structure of those individuals dying from specific causes.


The basic structure required to build up a multiple cause life table, are the age-specific midyear populations and the age- cause-specific number of deaths. The Selvinxs Statistical Analysis of Epidemiologic Data Monographs in Epidemiology and Biostatistics, method is employed to data from INEGI and CONAPO to obtain risk estimates for LC, COPD, IHD and all of the other causes of death. The conditional probabilities, cumulative distributions and lifetime risks are calculated and registered in tables and plotted in graphs.


For the age group 60 to 65, the probability to die for lung cancer before 65 of age for individuals at 60 is 0.0015. Since all causes of death are included, the probabilities calculated from the Mexico mortality data indicate that the cause-specific conditional probabilities for lung cancer increase consistently between 45 and 75 years or more old. The probabilities for Ischaemic Heart Disease increase gradually from 25 years old and increase sharply from 65 years old. The conditional probabilities that describe the COPD deaths, present higher probability between groups of 0-4 years, diminish between 5 y 29 years old, to augment after 50 years.

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