The 13th World Conference on Tobacco OR Health

Objective: Tobacco control policies were examined through a simulation model projecting smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality beginning in 2001. We examined the potential impact of five types of policies independently and as a comprehensive policy.

Methods: A simulation model known as SimSmoke was applied. Smoking prevalence changes over time through initiation and cessation, which are in turn influenced by tobacco control policies. We considered the effect of changes in taxes/prices, clean air laws, media campaigns, cessation programs and youth access policies on projected smoking prevalence over the period 2001-2034. These results are presented in comparison to a Status quo scenario that assumes no significant policy developments as of the year 2004.

Results: The largest potential gains came from implementing a comprehensive tobacco control policy, but significant reductions in smoking prevalence and premature mortality may also be achieved through tax increases. A comprehensive policy implemented through 2034 would save 15,759 lives (9,573 male and 6,186 female) and an 85% tax increase would result in 6,216 lives saved. A media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates. The model showed that in the absence of tobacco control measures, deaths and burden of disease from smoking will increase and helped to identify the most important information gaps for modelling and policymaking in Argentina. Among these are information on initiation and cessation rates and the local impact of policies.