The 13th World Conference on Tobacco OR Health

The global forecast is for the number of smokers to rise from the current 1.3 billion to over 1.6 billion by 2026.[ ] Worldwide population increases over the next 20 years, especially in developing regions, coupled with increased disposable income, will offset any decreases in smoking prevalence brought about by tax policies, legislation, health education and litigation. In addition, by 2026, 85% of the world's smokers will live in developing countries.[ ] The overall use of tobacco products will therefore be far greater than in 2006.

China is currently the largest producer and consumer of tobacco, and its national monopoly will continue to dominate the Chinese market. Over the next 20 years, the western-based transnational tobacco companies may still be leading forces, but China and Japan will expand their share over the world markets, by increasing exports and by further acquisitions of transnational companies. Yet both China and Japan have ratified the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), and it will be interesting to observe the effect this will have as time unfolds.

By 2026, the tobacco industry should be fully regulated in all countries, with licensing of nicotine as an addictive drug, and manufacture, promotion and sale under stringent regulatory control by government agencies. The world will not look back at 2006 and comment adversely on strict measures implemented under the FCTC. The question that will be asked of us is “Why did it take you so long?”