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The 13th World Conference on Tobacco OR Health

Building capacity for a tobacco-free world

July 12-15, 2006, Washington, DC, USA

Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 12:00 PM

Potential Effects of Mental Illness on Canadian Tobacco Control Policy Risk

Paul Smetanin, MBF, B.Econ, Graduate College of Management, Southern Cross University (Australia), Military Road, East Lismore, Australia, Paul Kobak, M.Sc, B.Sc., Risk Research, RiskAnalytica, Suite 405, 1696 Avenue Road, Toronto, ON m5m 3y5, Canada, and Charl Els, MMed, Psych, MBC, Addiction Medicine Section, University of Alberta, 114 St - 89 Ave, Edmonton, AB T6G 2E1, Canada.

Objective: Recent evidence indicates a strong correlation between mental illness and the prevalence of tobacco dependence/consumption. Population-based simulation is conducted to understand the significant of this issue.

Methods: A population-based Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the possible impact of smoking prevalence and mental illness on the Canadian population, the disease dynamics (incorporating lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease / COPD) as well as macro-economic effects.

Results: The results of simulation, provided cumulatively from 2004 are as follows:

The results illustrate the expected difference between tobacco control interventions that do not seek to mitigate the effects of mental illness on smoking cessation rates and those that successfully do. Increases in disease related consequences and macro economic effects indicate the temporal significance/risk of a future Canadian tobacco control policy which ignores the effects of mental illness.

Conclusion: The current analysis is preliminary in nature and does not take into account tobacco-attributable illnesses other than lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, and COPD. Despite this, the results indicate that mental illness is a significant policy risk factor for an efficient and effective future Canadian tobacco control policy.